Author Topic: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.  (Read 2671 times)

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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #30 on: February 24, 2017, 11:50:02 AM »
That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no?  :P

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

Duh. Thornton retires after that one season after winning the Cup and Tavares signs to replace him.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2017, 12:18:26 PM »
That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no?  :P

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

Duh. Thornton retires after that one season after winning the Cup and Tavares signs to replace him.

This is excellent general managing right here.

Offline herman

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2017, 12:24:48 PM »
Well, the fact that Griffith has had opportunities on 3 different teams now in the past year and was placed on waivers by all of them. Players generally don't get a 4th crack at this. Maybe that's not fair but that's often how it is.

Leipsic's more than a year younger, went a few rounds higher in the same draft and hasn't been looked at and then given away for nothing by three fairly bright organizations?

Yeah, I get that. Those are optics of not producing in a limited role (he did pretty well in Florida, points production aside). He's exactly the type of player I like management shaking the trees for, and he plays the type of game I like the Leafs to play.

I just think he should get more of a chance, as he is comparable to Leipsic and Brown (who are both serviceable middle to bottom NHL producers that can play higher). Here, he just didn't have the right slot available. In Florida, he was sent down to build him back up after sustaining a concussion.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2017, 12:25:01 PM »
Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

This was a table that was posted in that reddit link that was largely used as evidence for why Griffith is "actually good":

LINECF%        XGF%        GF%
Griffith-Barkov-Jagr63.20%66.80%77.00%
Jokinen-Barkov-Jagr59.40%63.90%74.40%
Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr54.20%57.80%68.90%
Marchessault-Barkov-Jagr        54.50%49.30%42.80%
Pirri-Barkov-Jagr55.00%46.80%61.00%

The argument was essentially Griffith helped Jagr and Barkov post the best results they've ever had.

I'll start by saying: I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Second, when I did try to pull up the numbers for myself, I didn't get the same results the OP did. For instance, Puckalytics gives the Jokinen trio a 83.3% GF and 57.2% CF when they're together. Since the article doesn't specify a time line, I'm assuming that they're using career numbers, and not just this season. The post specifically says that Griffith helps Barkov and Jagr put up "flat out Goal differentials that they’d ever put up together". But right there Jokinen's numbers are actually better. With that said, that Jokinen line has only played about 107 minutes together, so it's a pretty small sample size. Which leads me to another problem...

... Why didn't the OP include TOI there? Probably because most of them are incredibly small like Jokinen's. Pirri only has about 66 minutes with those two, and again Puckalytics' numbers are different than the table: 66.7 GF% and 55.8% CF. Looking at Griffith's numbers specifically, he has about 87 minutes of ice-time with those two. Griffith averaged about 12 minutes with Florida so means they roughly played 7-8 games together. That just doesn't seem like nearly enough date to make any conclusions.

Anyways, yeah, the article as a whole just doesn't really pass the smell test. And quite frankly the Florida Panthers are the most analytically-inclined organization in the entire NHL. If those numbers held as much weight as the OP suggests they do I'd have to imagine they wouldn't have given him away for nothing.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2017, 12:31:06 PM »
Yeah, I get that. Those are optics of not producing in a limited role (he did pretty well in Florida, points production aside). He's exactly the type of player I like management shaking the trees for, and he plays the type of game I like the Leafs to play.

I really don't think those teams, none of whom are dumb, taking a pass on him would do so strictly on the basis of the optics of his lack of production.

I just think he should get more of a chance, as he is comparable to Leipsic and Brown (who are both serviceable middle to bottom NHL producers that can play higher). Here, he just didn't have the right slot available. In Florida, he was sent down to build him back up after sustaining a concussion.

Realistically that chance isn't going to come here. Between Brown, Marner, Sosh, Kapanen, Nylander if you don't move him next year...there's just no real opportunity for someone who realistically has a very limited upside.

Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2017, 12:40:54 PM »
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/2/21/14663294/why-isnt-seth-griffith-in-the-nhl-toronto-marlies-toronto-maple-leafs

The article focuses mostly on the fact that Griffith doesn't really shoot the puck a whole lot, even at the AHL level.
Quote
I chose to look at iCorsi, or individual shot attempts, because there is a strong relationship between high shot rates in junior or minor leagues and future NHL success.

Quote
Here is the list of all Leafs players with lower iCorsi/60 than Griffith: Roman Polak, Leo Komarov, Frederik Gauthier. He is not shooting in the NHL like a regular NHLer.

What Griffith has shown he can do is at least participate effectively on a high CF% line, although his NHL stats this year are slightly puffed up by his exalted Florida linemates. He isn’t a negative. He doesn’t make huge mistakes, or turn the puck over. He isn’t a liability in the defensive zone.

What he hasn’t shown is that he is a positive in any way. If Nikita “you shot that from where?” Soshnikov is a better points producer with the two worst linemates on the Leafs, then maybe Griffith really is a tweener, and not ready for the big show at all.

He’s also not cast in bronze at his age. He may be able to develop a more aggressive offensive game, and as a place to do that, the Leafs organization is likely one of the best. But those AHL points of his, now or in the past, do not shout out obvious NHLer to me. Not once you dig beneath the surface.

Offline herman

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2017, 12:43:57 PM »
Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.

Boredom has a lot to do with it, and you guys haven't gone the 'ignore the crazy person' route yet :)

I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos (Pirri is with the Rangers this year). Reilly Smith is the fifth.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 12:46:58 PM by herman »

Offline Frank E

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2017, 12:47:01 PM »
Just seems like a weird hill to fight on.

Boredom has a lot to do with it, and you guys haven't gone the 'ignore the crazy person' route yet :)

I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos. Reilly Smith is the fifth.

I remember a few years back when someone had a huge crush on DiDomenico...can't remember who it was though.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #38 on: February 24, 2017, 12:58:30 PM »
Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos (Pirri is with the Rangers this year). Reilly Smith is the fifth.

Ah cheers, didn't know CH added WOWYs and such. Although there's still some errors, like the fact that the Jokinen trio still shows up as having the best GF% together even though the article claims the Griffith line has that distinction.

Offline herman

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2017, 01:19:22 PM »
Ah cheers, didn't know CH added WOWYs and such. Although there's still some errors, like the fact that the Jokinen trio still shows up as having the best GF% together even though the article claims the Griffith line has that distinction.

I just noticed that section a week or two ago myself. It's pretty fun to play with!

I do wish Babcock juggled the lines a bit more this year so that we could see where players fit together (check out Matthews - Kadri - Nylander).

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #40 on: February 24, 2017, 02:37:50 PM »
Yeah I think that's roughly where I'm at too. I'm not fully convinced we move all 3 of JVR/Komarov/Bozak though. So assuming Komarov stays he plays with Nylander/Kapanen. If JVR stays he goes with Matthews-Marner and Leipsic drops down to the 2nd line.

I agree that it seems unlikely that all three of them go but with the exception of JVR I just can't wrap my head around how either Komarov or Bozak could fit on the team next year. I guess Leivo could be seen as surplus but if you deal JVR and bring back a LW of Leivo, Leipsic, Hyman and Komarov...I don't know. That just strikes me as a lot of missed opportunities for offense from your middle 6(assuming Leipsic is on a top line).

It sounds crazy but absent the significant blue line improvements the team needs I'm really thinking that a major piece they need to be targeting is a winger(preferably left) who contributes both in the grit/puck retrieval way and is a decent offensive option. If Nylander moves to the middle, I'm not crazy about the wings on this team right now.

Not right now perhaps, but isn't this where the team's prospect pool is particularly deep? It might take a couple years for the serviceable top-9 guys to separate from the pack and establish themselves, but quality wingers available for short term contracts also seem to be something you can find on the UFA market.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #41 on: February 24, 2017, 02:44:52 PM »
Not right now perhaps, but isn't this where the team's prospect pool is particularly deep? It might take a couple years for the serviceable top-9 guys to separate from the pack and establish themselves, but quality wingers available for short term contracts also seem to be something you can find on the UFA market.

Yes and no. I think there is some quality in the prospect pool but for the most part they tend to be undersized and mid round picks. So I have some serious questions about how much versatility they can add.

That said, you're right about the UFA market. You'd just have hoped not to have to spend money there after, like you point out, investing so much in that area in picks
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2017, 04:17:31 PM »
Not right now perhaps, but isn't this where the team's prospect pool is particularly deep? It might take a couple years for the serviceable top-9 guys to separate from the pack and establish themselves, but quality wingers available for short term contracts also seem to be something you can find on the UFA market.

Yes and no. I think there is some quality in the prospect pool but for the most part they tend to be undersized and mid round picks. So I have some serious questions about how much versatility they can add.

That said, you're right about the UFA market. You'd just have hoped not to have to spend money there after, like you point out, investing so much in that area in picks

I guess they've invested "so much" in terms of an absolute number of picks, but that they're mid-rounders is sort of the deal, no? If you devote a bunch of picks to something, they're going to be less pedigreed, mid-round picks, and those will take time to develop.

They've got 4 open spots in their top-9 (assuming Marner and Hyman stick; Brown, Leivo, and Sosh might).

Hyman - Matthews - (A)
(B) - Kadri - Marner
(B) - Nylander - (A)

For skill and scoring (A), between Brown, Leivo, Kapanen, Leipsic, Brooks, Bracco, Timashov, and Johnson, they've got a good chance of some quality top-9 wingers. As for size and grit/puck retrieval (B), they've got Rychel, Korostelev, Grundstrom, or Korshkov in the system, and, if we drop 'size,' Soshnikov... and Leipsic probably counts here too.
 
But I expect that'll take a couple years to sort out. In the meantime, I guess I'm not too worried that the team's competitiveness is going to be all that diminished if the Leafs already have some serviceable top-9 options (Leivo, Brown) and are replacing JvR and Komarov by getting by on short term deals for the next Clarke MacArthurs, PAPs, Grabners, Radulovs, etc.

The UFA market does offer stuff you'd rather not have to spend money on when it comes to the precise thing you think they're missing -- size/grit with offense -- but I'd rather they get called soft or small next season than try to sign the likes of Clarkson, Lucic, or Backes.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 05:12:19 PM by mr grieves »

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2017, 06:25:00 PM »
I was thinking about this last night.  Who do they sit when Marner comes back?  I mean all things being equal, I would say Martin or Komarov.  However, I think it's more likely one of Soshnikov or Leivo.

It seems unlikely that it would be someone on the left side so Sosh seems like the easy answer.

Yeah, it'll be Sosh for sure. The bigger question is which winger drops out of the top-9. Leivo or Brown?

I don't think it's fair that it's Soshnikov.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.” - Khalil Gibran

Offline Highlander

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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2017, 07:22:44 PM »
I suggest we have two Leaf teams. Team A and Team B. They alternate nights they play so we can see the Leafs play every night in season.   ;)
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Re: Leafs could have 5 or 6 forward lines next year.
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2017, 07:22:44 PM »