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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 25, 2016, 12:33:12 PM

Title: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 25, 2016, 12:33:12 PM
#1        Auston Matthews
#31      Yegor Korshkov
#57      Carl Grundstrom
#62      Joseph Woll
#72      James Greenway
#92      Adam Brooks
#101    Keaton Middleton
#122    Vladimir Bobylev   
#152    Jack Walker
#179    Nicolas Mattinen
#182    Nikolai Chebykin

Thanks Herman for the great job!
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on June 25, 2016, 06:49:25 PM
 An interesting group. Hopefully there is a couple of decent NHLers in it.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: disco on June 25, 2016, 06:52:10 PM
Good post WhatIf... here's Mark Hunter:

https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/video/mark-hunter-june-25-2016/t-277437436/c-44292903
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 25, 2016, 06:54:51 PM
Thanks WIGWAL. I missed the 2nd day of the draft. General thoughts? Seems like an odd collection of players. Lots of size, lots of older draft-eligible prospects. Passed on a lot of higher ranked guys with Korshkov.

No problem sir.

It was definitely a strange day, the Leafs seemed to be singing from a different hymn sheet than most everyone else.

I'm kinda excited to see how it works out, did they just Billy Beane the draft right under everyones nose?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: hockeyfan1 on June 25, 2016, 07:15:01 PM
Aside from Matthews, seems like a mix of good potentials and plenty of look-sees.

Korshkov(W), Woll(G), Middleton(D), Walker(W/D). They already have the size, speed, and agility with greater room for improvement.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 25, 2016, 07:43:41 PM

Picks I Like: Matthews, Grundstrom

Picks I don't really like: Korshkov, Brooks

Picks I have largely no opinion on: The rest of them
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on June 25, 2016, 08:07:39 PM
Korshkov must have some solid backing from their scout in Russia, kinda reminds me of the Antropov pick in a way. Brooks at 92 seems fine to me, same for Walker at 152.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 25, 2016, 08:24:15 PM
A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl00oN4VAAAlM6c.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 25, 2016, 09:51:49 PM
A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl00oN4VAAAlM6c.jpg:large)

Austom...?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 25, 2016, 10:03:54 PM
A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl00oN4VAAAlM6c.jpg:large)

Austom...?
LMFAO :(
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 25, 2016, 11:06:51 PM
Thanks for the compile, WIGWAL

OMG! Yes! THANK YOU: Matthews
Like: Woll, Walker
Interesting: Grundstrom, Korshkov, Brooks, Mattinen
Meh: Greenway, Middleton, Bobylev, Chebykin
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 25, 2016, 11:42:36 PM
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrZsEIZNHAU[/youtube]

Transcribed by MLHS: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/25/2016-nhl-draft-toronto-maple-leafs-picks-list/
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 26, 2016, 07:08:12 AM
My read on the Leafs draft process:

- looks like a huge departure from last year's consistent exploitation of the market inefficiency in Size bias. skill > size is very obvious and easy to understand
- overagers/size appeared to be a focus, but I contend they've been drafting consistently for BPA both years (they picked larger overagers last year; e.g. Desrocher)
- this year, the weak draft class + even more data points on dev curve and progress momentum happened to put these who happen to be older/larger/international at the top of the BPA list at each pick.
- none of this matters if the picks can't play, but clearly the scouting department saw which players had steep upward curves based on their d/d+ years and slotted them accordingly
- benefits to their situation were also added to the BPA weighting scale
- overage = direct control over dev (Marlies), shorter dev timeline; sounds traditionally unattractive (history of rejection) so there is higher likelihood of picking who you want; ELC/SPC doesn't kick in until they're pretty much ready to drop into NHL (huge value, even for bottom six plugs)
- non-CHL picks: prospects get to stew longer without the cost of a contract while remaining under our control -- perfect situation for goalie development without kicking out an existing prospect; international picks are already playing against full-grown pro players

Why are we so meh about this draft?
- highly untraditional
- run up draft coverage always favours first year draft eligibles so those are the names we assess and attach to
- on the surface, looks like a Burke draft
- picks were even more unknown than usual

What is so exciting about this draft (outside of Matthews):
- clear analytics focus
- exploiting situations for easier cap/contract management
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 26, 2016, 07:18:05 AM
Thanks for your thoughts herman, definite food for thought.

I thought this roundtable from PPP was pretty good, I think they addressed a lot the reasons why fans were left feeling somewhat underwhelmed yesterday.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/25/12031494/ppp-roundtable-our-thoughts-on-todays-draft-selections
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: RedLeaf on June 26, 2016, 07:41:33 AM
My read on the Leafs draft process:

- looks like a huge departure from last year's consistent exploitation of the market inefficiency in Size bias. skill > size is very obvious and easy to understand
- overagers/size appeared to be a focus, but I contend they've been drafting consistently for BPA both years (they picked larger overagers last year; e.g. Desrocher)
- this year, the weak draft class + even more data points on dev curve and progress momentum happened to put these who happen to be older/larger/international at the top of the BPA list at each pick.
- none of this matters if the picks can't play, but clearly the scouting department saw which players had steep upward curves based on their d/d+ years and slotted them accordingly
- benefits to their situation were also added to the BPA weighting scale
- overage = direct control over dev (Marlies), shorter dev timeline; sounds traditionally unattractive (history of rejection) so there is higher likelihood of picking who you want; ELC/SPC doesn't kick in until they're pretty much ready to drop into NHL (huge value, even for bottom six plugs)
- non-CHL picks: prospects get to stew longer without the cost of a contract while remaining under our control -- perfect situation for goalie development without kicking out an existing prospect; international picks are already playing against full-grown pro players

Why are we so meh about this draft?
- highly untraditional
- run up draft coverage always favours first year draft eligibles so those are the names we assess and attach to
- on the surface, looks like a Burke draft
- picks were even more unknown than usual

What is so exciting about this draft (outside of Matthews):
- clear analytics focus
- exploiting situations for easier cap/contract management

Nice breakdown Herman!
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: KadriFan on June 26, 2016, 07:55:23 AM
If Mark Hunter says they have upside and he's happy, then so am I.  Go Leafs Go.   Can't wait to see what's next. I'm guessing a trade for a young dman.   Someone with potential who has not worked out yet. 
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 26, 2016, 08:21:52 AM
Thanks, guys. It's just a guess really, based on what they've been saying publicly and some of the analyses other fans have dug up.

Hard to say how well these guys play, and hard to say if this tactic pays off until 2-3 years from now. This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though.

My key point though is that they didn't do anything differently this draft from the last (philosophically). The result is just how the market shook out.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 09:44:17 AM

I think some people are generally confusing the idea of a player being a lower ceiling type with a player being a "ready soon" type. I think the difference can be highlighted with a guy like Gauthier who, when drafted, was sort of billed as the ultimate "low ceiling but safe bet" kind of guy and while there's some evidence to suggest that still might be the case I don't think too many of us are really expecting him to be a NHL regular until at least draft+4.

A lot of the things being cited as positives with the draft class(the ability for europeans to come to AHL immediately, european prospects playing against "grown men", different players having different development curves) aren't exactly new so it would stand to reason that there should at least be something in the way of evidence supporting this as a draft theory. I think the reason we're not seeing that is that a lot of what they did is actually bucking the information we have. As an immediate example, there's not a strong history of undrafted CHL players making big impacts in the NHL but there is a pretty extensive history of undrafted 20 year olds in the CHL putting up big numbers as overagers.

Bucking the evidence we have isn't always a recipe for disaster or even a bad decision but I do think it should at least be acknowledged.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 09:48:06 AM
This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though. 

I think if you're inclined to put everything this management team does in the best possible light it's probably misleading to then use those reads as support for continuing to do so. They have done stupid things before.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on June 26, 2016, 10:10:48 AM
Interesting draft to say the least, lets hope at least 3 of these guys after Matthews pan out. I can see a lot of package deals coming up in the next week.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: KadriFan on June 26, 2016, 10:15:43 AM
Interesting draft to say the least, lets hope at least 3 of these guys after Matthews pan out. I can see a lot of package deals coming up in the next week.

Three would be awesome!!!
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on June 26, 2016, 10:28:54 AM

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 10:47:00 AM

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 26, 2016, 10:54:29 AM

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on June 26, 2016, 11:04:18 AM
I feel as though I should have said "uncommon."
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 11:06:12 AM

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?

The '04 Blackhawks had 19.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Dappleganger on June 26, 2016, 02:50:13 PM

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?

The '04 Blackhawks had 19.

*17 picks in 9 rounds for the hawks in '04.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 26, 2016, 03:54:08 PM
A nice Scott Wheeler article about Joseph Woll:  Leafs draftee Joseph Woll a student of the game, budding young star (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/26/12030844/leafs-draftee-joseph-woll-a-student-of-the-game-budding-young-star)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 26, 2016, 05:24:23 PM
Yeah I really like the Woll pick. He was someone that really stood out among the potential goalies to go mid-round.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 26, 2016, 08:38:47 PM
More to munch on: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/26/what-the-numbers-say-overage-players-vs-first-time-eligibles/

Quote
After Round 1 - Draft Year vs. Overage

Forwards   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   667   92   13.79%
Overage   311   52   16.72%

Defense   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   392   50   12.76%
Overage   204   35   17.16%

Here we see that there is a higher success rate for overage players selected after the first round for both forwards and defenders. It’s not an incredible difference, but it definitely seems that looking to overage players after the first round will yield NHL players more often than targeting draft-year players will.

Still a pretty raw look at the overage advantages, if there even is any. The Success criteria is 200 games played.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 26, 2016, 08:42:22 PM
This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though. 

I think if you're inclined to put everything this management team does in the best possible light it's probably misleading to then use those reads as support for continuing to do so. They have done stupid things before.

I apologize if that was misleading; I'm still not sure what to think of all this yet, and I see fans feeling compelled to seek silver linings or interpretations that cast this draft into a positive light (myself included).
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 08:49:34 PM
More to munch on: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/26/what-the-numbers-say-overage-players-vs-first-time-eligibles/

Quote
After Round 1 - Draft Year vs. Overage

Forwards   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   667   92   13.79%
Overage   311   52   16.72%

Defense   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   392   50   12.76%
Overage   204   35   17.16%

Here we see that there is a higher success rate for overage players selected after the first round for both forwards and defenders. It’s not an incredible difference, but it definitely seems that looking to overage players after the first round will yield NHL players more often than targeting draft-year players will.

Still a pretty raw look at the overage advantages, if there even is any. The Success criteria is 200 games played.

I think that the critique is less about the chances of producing a marginal or contributing NHLer and more about having lower ceilings in general. You and I have talked before about the problems with all of these sort of macro-draft evaluations but one of the things I noted when I was looking through the teams that had drafted 3 or so NHL regulars outside of the first round in a year is that for the most part the players taken weren't guys who'd blow you away. The Hawks, for instance, took Bickell, Bolland and Brouwer in the same year.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 08:50:47 PM
This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though. 

I think if you're inclined to put everything this management team does in the best possible light it's probably misleading to then use those reads as support for continuing to do so. They have done stupid things before.

I apologize if that was misleading; I'm still not sure what to think of all this yet, and I see fans feeling compelled to seek silver linings or interpretations that cast this draft into a positive light (myself included).


If it makes you feel better, I don't think anyone is ever deliberately stupid.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 26, 2016, 09:02:05 PM
I think that the critique is less about the chances of producing a marginal or contributing NHLer and more about having lower ceilings in general. You and I have talked before about the problems with all of these sort of macro-draft evaluations but one of the things I noted when I was looking through the teams that had drafted 3 or so NHL regulars outside of the first round in a year is that for the most part the players taken weren't guys who'd blow you away. The Hawks, for instance, took Bickell, Bolland and Brouwer in the same year.

Agreed. Busta and I sort of bandied this about during the actual draft; this class appears to have nothing that enticed the Leafs in the high ceiling range outside the top 15-20, even the names the blogosphere were touting as steals or high potential picks. They went with 'safe' higher floor, but lower ceilinged picks (Komarovs, Soshnikovs, and Marincins). Some argued that they might be pulling a Yzerman and drafting for cheap filler knowing they'd be top-heavy on the cap.

If it makes you feel better, I don't think anyone is ever deliberately stupid.

Haha, of that I'm well aware.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 26, 2016, 10:27:12 PM
This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though. 

I think if you're inclined to put everything this management team does in the best possible light it's probably misleading to then use those reads as support for continuing to do so. They have done stupid things before.

I apologize if that was misleading; I'm still not sure what to think of all this yet, and I see fans feeling compelled to seek silver linings or interpretations that cast this draft into a positive light (myself included).

Someone mentioned how Burkish this draft seemed.  I think there's a lot to that.  Especially the #31 ... I hope it's not Biggs, The Sequel.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2016, 10:45:43 PM
Agreed. Busta and I sort of bandied this about during the actual draft; this class appears to have nothing that enticed the Leafs in the high ceiling range outside the top 15-20, even the names the blogosphere were touting as steals or high potential picks. They went with 'safe' higher floor, but lower ceilinged picks (Komarovs, Soshnikovs, and Marincins). Some argued that they might be pulling a Yzerman and drafting for cheap filler knowing they'd be top-heavy on the cap.

And I think as a strategy it's an interesting one that probably should be explored if the team thinks there's something there. I just don't think that's something to do with the #31 pick when there's some high potential guys out there at positions of need. Even if they didn't grow as attached to Girard as I did, I think those shots sometimes need to be taken(and my faith in Girard has been somewhat validated by who did end up taking him, 9 spots after where they took Josi and 1 spot ahead of where they took Weber).

Biggs, Gauthier, Ross...we've heard the "safe, lower ceiling" thing before.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 27, 2016, 09:22:19 AM
Scott Wheeler's picks in Toronto's spots:
1. Matthews
31. Abramov
57. Bitten
62. Dineen
72. Allard
92. Mete
101. Foriter
122. Sokolov
152. Bernhardt
179. Somppi
182. Boucher

He admits the exposure of players he is privy to is far less than the Leafs, but from his work at Future Considerations and covering the team on PPP, these were the high-ceilinged players he would've chosen.

I wish we did take some shots at players like Girard and Dineen; granted I really didn't know much of anything outside the top 10. Scouting reports of our guys, other than their size, were somewhat inconsistent (naturally).
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 27, 2016, 09:24:05 AM

I would have been very, very happy with those first 6 picks.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 27, 2016, 10:45:06 AM

I would have been very, very happy with those first 6 picks.

Agreed. I can't believe that Dineen fell that far.

Sokolov too.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 27, 2016, 03:06:10 PM
If it makes you feel better, I don't think anyone is ever deliberately stupid.

Case in point?

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/27/bruins-draft-trent-frederic-first-round-admit-third-line-grinder

Quote
The Bruins’ unhealthy obsession with the bottom-half of the roster became a parody of itself over the weekend. Stories like this only make those Stamkos rumors sound that much sillier.

The Bruins essentially admitted that to their fans on Friday at the NHL Draft after they selected center Trent Frederic with the 29th overall pick. Frederic, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, was ranked outside the top 50 by many scouts and draft experts. The pick was almost universally regarded as a major reach.

The problem with the pick, however, isn’t that the Bruins drafted a guy that the “experts” said was only a third-line player. It’s that they agree with them. They took a first-round pick, which should net you a player with big upside 100 percent of the time, and admitted they used it on a player destined to be a bottom-six forward. They did that, on purpose.

“[Frederic] is not going to be a top-two-line guy, we know that,” Bruins director of amateur scouting Keith Gretzky told reporters at the draft, according to Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. “But he has some jam. He plays hard with the penalty minutes. We were fortunate to get him.

“We believed he was our next guy and we really liked the projection of him as a staff. Everybody raved about him, his character is outstanding. He’s an athlete.”

Don Sweeney, man. It's always one great step forward quickly followed by two big steps back with this guy.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: bustaheims on June 27, 2016, 03:08:36 PM
Case in point?

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/27/bruins-draft-trent-frederic-first-round-admit-third-line-grinder

Quote
The Bruins’ unhealthy obsession with the bottom-half of the roster became a parody of itself over the weekend. Stories like this only make those Stamkos rumors sound that much sillier.

The Bruins essentially admitted that to their fans on Friday at the NHL Draft after they selected center Trent Frederic with the 29th overall pick. Frederic, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, was ranked outside the top 50 by many scouts and draft experts. The pick was almost universally regarded as a major reach.

The problem with the pick, however, isn’t that the Bruins drafted a guy that the “experts” said was only a third-line player. It’s that they agree with them. They took a first-round pick, which should net you a player with big upside 100 percent of the time, and admitted they used it on a player destined to be a bottom-six forward. They did that, on purpose.

“[Frederic] is not going to be a top-two-line guy, we know that,” Bruins director of amateur scouting Keith Gretzky told reporters at the draft, according to Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. “But he has some jam. He plays hard with the penalty minutes. We were fortunate to get him.

“We believed he was our next guy and we really liked the projection of him as a staff. Everybody raved about him, his character is outstanding. He’s an athlete.”

Don Sweeney, man. It's always one great step forward quickly followed by two big steps back with this guy.

While I agree the Bruins made a strange choice, I disagree with the bolded line. It's a little too hyperbolic for me.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 27, 2016, 03:25:18 PM
Case in point?

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/27/bruins-draft-trent-frederic-first-round-admit-third-line-grinder

Quote
The Bruins’ unhealthy obsession with the bottom-half of the roster became a parody of itself over the weekend. Stories like this only make those Stamkos rumors sound that much sillier.

The Bruins essentially admitted that to their fans on Friday at the NHL Draft after they selected center Trent Frederic with the 29th overall pick. Frederic, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, was ranked outside the top 50 by many scouts and draft experts. The pick was almost universally regarded as a major reach.

The problem with the pick, however, isn’t that the Bruins drafted a guy that the “experts” said was only a third-line player. It’s that they agree with them. They took a first-round pick, which should net you a player with big upside 100 percent of the time, and admitted they used it on a player destined to be a bottom-six forward. They did that, on purpose.

“[Frederic] is not going to be a top-two-line guy, we know that,” Bruins director of amateur scouting Keith Gretzky told reporters at the draft, according to Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. “But he has some jam. He plays hard with the penalty minutes. We were fortunate to get him.

“We believed he was our next guy and we really liked the projection of him as a staff. Everybody raved about him, his character is outstanding. He’s an athlete.”

Don Sweeney, man. It's always one great step forward quickly followed by two big steps back with this guy.

While I agree the Bruins made a strange choice, I disagree with the bolded line. It's a little too hyperbolic for me.

Yeah. This was a 29th pick, their extra first-rounder.

Still, he did not even aim for upside, or use a heretofore unexploited 'market inefficiency', and exactly my knee-jerk reaction to what the Leafs were doing with their post-1st rd picks.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 05:04:04 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/28/j-d-greenway-joseph-woll-auston-matthews-danton-cole/
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on June 28, 2016, 06:00:14 PM
This is an extremely positive revue. 

Could you describe J.D. Greenway’s game in a little detail for us?

Danton Cole: He’s a big, physical defenceman. His game has come along way. I think certain things about him are pretty underrated. He ended up with 27 or 28 points for us, which is pretty good for a defenceman. I know Adam Fox had the 59 points this year so that kind of skews things, but if you look at Trouba or Jones in their last years, they were right around there or a little bit north of it. He’s a big, physical guy. I think he keeps it pretty simple. He played with Clayton Keller’s line quite a bit, and I think he understood his job was to get the puck moving forward.

Good first pass?

Cole: Outstanding, and it got better and better over the two years. It was smart and it was quick. He found out, like a lot of defencemen, that he could hold it a little longer. He started to figure out that if he got it and moved it that a lot of good things happen offensively. At the Under-18 World Championships, he was +16 in our seven games there. He wasn’t on the ice for one goal against. He had probably the top assignments every game and was killing a ton of penalties as well. That was outstanding. Plus, he had seven points in seven games. I look at where guys end up in the draft, and value wise I think that was a great pick. I think, in a couple of years, as he keeps developing at Wisconsin with the coaches there – Mark Osiecki has done a great job with a lot of young D – you’ll look at him and think it’s a first-round draft pick. I think, with his mental progress – which sometimes comes quick, sometimes takes a while and sometimes doesn’t happen until guys leave – a lot of things kicked in for J.D. in the last half of the season. It really accelerated his learning and also his efficiency and understanding of the game. When you see that kick in, and you see guys start to move down that line in understanding how things connect, it’s a wonderful thing. He kicked into that and his game just took off from there. It was a lot of fun to see that happen.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: No.92 on June 28, 2016, 07:30:48 PM
Case in point?

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/27/bruins-draft-trent-frederic-first-round-admit-third-line-grinder

Quote
The Bruins’ unhealthy obsession with the bottom-half of the roster became a parody of itself over the weekend. Stories like this only make those Stamkos rumors sound that much sillier.

The Bruins essentially admitted that to their fans on Friday at the NHL Draft after they selected center Trent Frederic with the 29th overall pick. Frederic, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, was ranked outside the top 50 by many scouts and draft experts. The pick was almost universally regarded as a major reach.

The problem with the pick, however, isn’t that the Bruins drafted a guy that the “experts” said was only a third-line player. It’s that they agree with them. They took a first-round pick, which should net you a player with big upside 100 percent of the time, and admitted they used it on a player destined to be a bottom-six forward. They did that, on purpose.

“[Frederic] is not going to be a top-two-line guy, we know that,” Bruins director of amateur scouting Keith Gretzky told reporters at the draft, according to Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. “But he has some jam. He plays hard with the penalty minutes. We were fortunate to get him.

“We believed he was our next guy and we really liked the projection of him as a staff. Everybody raved about him, his character is outstanding. He’s an athlete.”

Don Sweeney, man. It's always one great step forward quickly followed by two big steps back with this guy.

While I agree the Bruins made a strange choice, I disagree with the bolded line. It's a little too hyperbolic for me.

It's a fantastic pick for the Bruins.  Any way to make them worse as a team.  ;)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 29, 2016, 07:39:31 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-draft/

That Russian 5 guy takes a speculative dive into the Leaf's 2016 draft class.

Some keen observations regarding drafting overage players, especially international ones, and targeting underperformers:
Quote
Nik Kulemin was draft + 2 (2006 Round 2 #44)
Leo Komarov was draft + 1 (2006 Round 6 #180)
Anton Stralman was draft + 2 (2005 Round 7 #216)
Carl Gunnarsson was draft + 2 (2007 Round 7 #194)
Viktor Stalberg was draft + 2 (2006 Round 6 #166)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on June 29, 2016, 09:48:25 AM
Herman the information provided on Korshkov was very encouraging as well, not to mention the highlights from the WJC. Kid has soft hands and a big frame
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 09:51:28 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-draft/

That Russian 5 guy takes a speculative dive into the Leaf's 2016 draft class.

Some keen observations regarding drafting overage players, especially international ones, and targeting underperformers:
Quote
Nik Kulemin was draft + 2 (2006 Round 2 #44)
Leo Komarov was draft + 1 (2006 Round 6 #180)
Anton Stralman was draft + 2 (2005 Round 7 #216)
Carl Gunnarsson was draft + 2 (2007 Round 7 #194)
Viktor Stalberg was draft + 2 (2006 Round 6 #166)

Yup. If you're doing it in round 5 or later, it seems like a pretty solid strategy.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 29, 2016, 10:32:48 AM
Just to see this all in one place:

2016
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
11Auston Matthews1997 (D-0)C6'2"216 lbs
231Yegor Korshkov1996 (D+2)RW6'3"179 lbs
257Carl Grundstrom1997 (D-0)LW6'0"194 lbs
362Joseph Woll1998 (D-0)G6'3"196 lbs
372J.D. Greenway1998 (D-0)LD6'4"205 lbs
492Adam Brooks1996 (D+2)C5'11"176 lbs
4101Keaton Middleton1998 (D-0)LD6'5"234 lbs
5122Vladimir Bobylev1997 (D+1)LW/C6'2"203 lbs
6152Jonathan "Jack" Walker1996 (D+2)LW5'11"179 lbs
6179Nicolas Mattinen1998 (D-0)RD6'4"220 lbs
7182Nikolai Chebykin1997 (D+1)LW/RW6'3"209 lbs

2015
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
14Mitch Marner1997 (D-0)C/RW5'11"163 lbs
234Travis Dermott1996 (D-0)LD5'11"196 lbs
261Jeremy Bracco1997 (D-0)RW/C5'9"172 lbs
365Andrew Nielsen1996 (D-0)LD6'3"207 lbs
368Martins Dzierkals1997 (D-0)LW/RW5'11"170 lbs
495Jesper Lindgren1997 (D-0)RD6'0"161 lbs
5125Dmytro Timashov1996 (D-0)LW/RW5'10"187 lbs
6155Stephen Desrocher1996 (D+1)LD6'4"198 lbs
7185Nikita Korostelev1997 (D-0)LW/RW6'1"194 lbs
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: McGarnagle on June 29, 2016, 10:50:32 AM
only 2 guys out of 11 under 6 feet. And even then just barely on those two.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 29, 2016, 10:59:52 AM
Yup. If you're doing it in round 5 or later, it seems like a pretty solid strategy.

Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

Rubstrov (5th) and Borgstrom (9th) went in the first round.

Asplund (4th), Dahlen (11th), Kuokkanen (20th), Kayumov (14th), Hronek (8th). 

There might have been very little chance he was still around at 57... I bet they didn't expect Grundstrom to still be there either.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 11:06:07 AM
Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

That's one scouting opinion among many:

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637 (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 29, 2016, 11:30:58 AM
Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

That's one scouting opinion among many:

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637 (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637)

Yup.... and we saw how well the actual draft played out compared to all of the rankings.   NHL teams don't follow the published rankings, they follow their own internal ones.  We have no idea where Korshkov was on anyone else's list.... he only needed to be NEXT on about one of about 20 lists (number of teams picking between 31 and 57).

The Leafs valued him higher than most- and probably for good reason, considering the scouts (Namestnikov) pushing him also led us to Soshnikov.  They didn't want to miss out on him.  Its not like the Leafs were the only ones who would have valued him that high- after 8 pts in 7 g at the WJC, he wasn't off everyone's radar and would have fallen to the 5th round.

I get it... you liked other players at 31 and I'm not saying I didn't either.  Its easy to get excited about the players in the CHL that put up big numbers in their draft year.  Its a lot harder to get excited about players who passed through drafts previously as it seems those players are behind in their development- but not everyone develops at the same time.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 11:42:54 AM
Its easy to get excited about the players in the CHL that put up big numbers in their draft year.  Its a lot harder to get excited about players who passed through drafts previously as it seems those players are behind in their development- but not everyone develops at the same time.

I don't think that's an accurate categorization of what I'm saying. I have very different feelings about the Korshkov pick and the Grundstrom pick and neither of those guys are "CHL players with big numbers". If that was the only pick a person would favour they'd be ruling out any picks from Europe or the USNDT.

The thing about a pick like Laberge isn't that he's a "CHL player with big numbers" because he's not really. 68 points in the QMJHL isn't a big deal. It's that there's far more consensus on him and his abilities.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492 (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492)

A low 1st round ranking is common, the worst he does is a mid 2nd round grade. By comparison, Korshkov has only two 2nd round grades and falls as low as a late 4th round ranking. The Leafs aren't the only team that has drafted successful Russian players and while Soshnikov is a promising looking prospect he's certainly not at the level where he himself is a justification for any Russian drafted.

Obviously there's a lot of guesswork when it comes to the draft and instant analysis is flawed no matter what but I don't think we should be limited to "The Leafs made the pick, therefore they liked the player, therefore it's a good pick". This front office group hasn't achieved enough to get that sort of credit and, to be honest, no front office really has.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 29, 2016, 12:10:16 PM
I don't think that's an accurate categorization of what I'm saying. I have very different feelings about the Korshkov pick and the Grundstrom pick and neither of those guys are "CHL players with big numbers". If that was the only pick a person would favour they'd be ruling out any picks from Europe or the USNDT.

The thing about a pick like Laberge isn't that he's a "CHL player with big numbers" because he's not really. 68 points in the QMJHL isn't a big deal. It's that there's far more consensus on him and his abilities.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492 (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492)

A low 1st round ranking is common, the worst he does is a mid 2nd round grade. By comparison, Korshkov has only two 2nd round grades and falls as low as a late 4th round ranking. The Leafs aren't the only team that has drafted successful Russian players and while Soshnikov is a promising looking prospect he's certainly not at the level where he himself is a justification for any Russian drafted.

Obviously there's a lot of guesswork when it comes to the draft and instant analysis is flawed no matter what but I don't think we should be limited to "The Leafs made the pick, therefore they liked the player, therefore it's a good pick". This front office group hasn't achieved enough to get that sort of credit and, to be honest, no front office really has.

I'm too lazy to breakdown your post into individual posts, but here are my comments:

- There is usually more consensus on players from the CHL because of the number of eyes that see those players.  Generally, the differences in grading players from the CHL comes down to how much the evaluator values speed vs skill vs size.

- In turn, European players that are late bloomers don't get evaluated nearly as often- hence the wide range of grades. 

- I agree with your last paragraph.  I'm not saying Korshkov was a "good pick" and our front office definitely hasn't achieved enough to not question their decisions.  I'm just pointing out that our front office has more information than just about any fan or online scouting website- including input from the guy who coached him and from a Russian scout who has done well for us so far.  So I'm not going to be disappointed that they passed over players who were more widely considered better prospects.  We won't know for years if they made the right decision because, as you said, the draft comes down to a whole lot of guesswork.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 12:28:30 PM
I'm just pointing out that our front office has more information than just about any fan or online scouting website- including input from the guy who coached him and from a Russian scout who has done well for us so far.

To be honest, I'm not sure it's entirely true. I don't think it's fair to say our staff necessarily has "more" information than someone like McKenzie or anyone else who does this thing seriously. And information doesn't really mean much as a quantitative thing here anyway. The biggest draft busts in history were all made with reams of information at the pickers' fingertips.

Regardless though, the lack of consensus is just one of the reasons I'm not particularly thrilled with this pick. I still think a high 2nd should be used to aim a little higher, especially when there are high value players at positions of need. If the reviews of Korshkov were the people who liked him thinking he was an immensely skilled sleeper who could be a big deal, that'd be one thing but just a little while ago this pick was being defended as low ceiling safety. 
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: KadriFan on June 29, 2016, 12:45:26 PM
Didn't Hunter say that Tommy and the other scouts really liked him?  That's good enough for me....
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 29, 2016, 01:03:06 PM
Regardless though, the lack of consensus is just one of the reasons I'm not particularly thrilled with this pick. I still think a high 2nd should be used to aim a little higher, especially when there are high value players at positions of need. If the reviews of Korshkov were the people who liked him thinking he was an immensely skilled sleeper who could be a big deal, that'd be one thing but just a little while ago this pick was being defended as low ceiling safety.

I don't agree with those who defended the pick as a low-ceiling safe pick.  His projection/ceiling is still of a skilled Top-6 forward in many eyes:

http://thehockeywriters.com/egor-korshkov-the-next-ones-nhl-2016-draft-prospect-profile/

Quote
Strengths:

Great hands
Very good skater
Knows how to score
Understanding of the game

Under Construction (Improvements to Make):

Lean body, needs to bulk up
Consistency

NHL Potential:

Egor Korshkov is a low-risk, high-reward type of prospect. He definitely has top-six potential in the NHL, but needs to mature his game.

Risk-Reward Analysis:

Risk = 2.5/5   Reward = 4/5

Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

By the way... I did prefer a defenseman with high upside with this pick, or Abramov or Debrincat at forward.  They do have higher ceilings but come with higher risk.  I'm not disappointed though as they didn't draft someone projected to be a bottom-six grinder either.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 01:11:32 PM
Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 29, 2016, 01:31:51 PM
Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

 ::)  Yup, because there are less than four players in every draft who are low risk, high reward.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2016, 01:45:47 PM
Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

 ::)  Yup, because there are less than four players in every draft who are low risk, high reward.

No, there are dozens of players guaranteed to have good NHL careers in every draft. GMs just pass on them because they're trying to get fired.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Britishbulldog on June 29, 2016, 01:57:02 PM
Just to see this all in one place:

2016
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
11Auston Matthews1997 (D-0)C6'2"216 lbs
231Yegor Korshkov1996 (D+2)RW6'3"179 lbs
257Carl Grundstrom1997 (D-0)LW6'0"194 lbs
362Joseph Woll1998 (D-0)G6'3"196 lbs
372J.D. Greenway1998 (D-0)LD6'4"205 lbs
492Adam Brooks1996 (D+2)C5'11"176 lbs
4101Keaton Middleton1998 (D-0)LD6'5"234 lbs
5122Vladimir Bobylev1997 (D+1)LW/C6'2"203 lbs
6152Jonathan "Jack" Walker1996 (D+2)LW5'11"179 lbs
6179Nicolas Mattinen1998 (D-0)RD6'4"220 lbs
7182Nikolai Chebykin1997 (D+1)LW/RW6'3"209 lbs

2015
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
14Mitch Marner1997 (D-0)C/RW5'11"163 lbs
234Travis Dermott1996 (D-0)LD5'11"196 lbs
261Jeremy Bracco1997 (D-0)RW/C5'9"172 lbs
365Andrew Nielsen1996 (D-0)LD6'3"207 lbs
368Martins Dzierkals1997 (D-0)LW/RW5'11"170 lbs
495Jesper Lindgren1997 (D-0)RD6'0"161 lbs
5125Dmytro Timashov1996 (D-0)LW/RW5'10"187 lbs
6155Stephen Desrocher1996 (D+1)LD6'4"198 lbs
7185Nikita Korostelev1997 (D-0)LW/RW6'1"194 lbs

Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 29, 2016, 02:12:56 PM
Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.

You're most welcome!

It's not that fun making tables by code*, but it was fun grabbing the data and seeing it all laid out to look for patterns. I considered adding scoring stats, but there isn't much valid comparison there (and I'd go blind keeping the table tags sorted out).

* yes, I could have used Excel and just posted a screenshot, but that'd be tedious to edit in the event of necessary corrections.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 29, 2016, 02:21:11 PM
When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought
(http://screencrush.com/files/2014/05/djimon-korath.gif)

And then I saw his size and age and thought:
(https://postmediacanadadotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/burkefiredleafs.jpg)

This must be a:
(https://31.media.tumblr.com/f83e3858a9e3eea3d0673b847e0f56c9/tumblr_n3k68kCbnd1t0cscho1_400.gif)

With more info now:
(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/095/451/314.jpg)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: TBLeafer on June 30, 2016, 08:37:53 AM
When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought
(http://screencrush.com/files/2014/05/djimon-korath.gif)

And then I saw his size and age and thought:
(https://postmediacanadadotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/burkefiredleafs.jpg)

This must be a:
(https://31.media.tumblr.com/f83e3858a9e3eea3d0673b847e0f56c9/tumblr_n3k68kCbnd1t0cscho1_400.gif)

With more info now:
(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/095/451/314.jpg)

Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 30, 2016, 09:29:45 AM
Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!

I thought this for pretty much every pick we made this year. Intrigue rising!
Thanks! Feel free to do whatever you want with it.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on June 30, 2016, 10:16:03 AM
Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on June 30, 2016, 10:28:25 AM
Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.

They should do gut checks and take tummy temps at the combines.

I think they scouted for the following:
- Skill projected potential
- Character: do they exhibit self-improvement, coachability, etc.?
- Development curve momentum: which part of the curve are they on? which direction are they headed? how quickly are they moving through that curve?

In addition, for goalies:
- Size
- Mobility/athleticism

A lot of the intangibles you mentioned, Highlander, are going to be captured in their character assessments. Are they good at the game because they love it and work at it? or are they just physically gifted and play it to make hay? I would call this the 'art' side of scouting which can't be done just by looking at the numbers.

Character can augment or be a detriment to the skills development. Ultimately, skills are what you draft for, and character determines the longevity and growth of how those skills project.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on July 01, 2016, 09:28:41 AM
better way to put it Herman as Character Assesment: Does this guy do the extra lap around the rink, 10 more pushups, does he always on every shift try to beat the other guy to the puck, never let up, always working at 100% and driving for more, kind of stuff.
As mentioned 99% of those drafted probably were the most competative guy on their bantam and midget teams.

I remember with they drafted Komorav and they said he was all grit and sandpaper with some scoring touch, they compared him to Kenny Linsman, "The Rat"… took him a while to get over the pond but that assesment was right on. Komorav is our Kenny The Rat.  LOL
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2016, 03:55:17 PM
This reddit thread followed a decent article about the value of Carl Grundstrom, I thought it had some good arguments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/4qx6z0/achariya_is_carl_grundstr%C3%B6m_better_than_57th/

They talk about the idea that the Leafs drafted role players versus drafting BPA.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 02, 2016, 06:28:28 PM
They've certainly given us a lot to discuss. A forward-thinking organization by definition should go against the grain. Last year was easier to read because this year looks like Burke-redux on the surface.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 04, 2016, 10:42:39 AM
McKeen's Draft Review: Toronto
http://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-draft-review-grades-toronto-maple-leafs/

Quote
Grade:
A+: Landing the prospect considered by many to be the best in the draft, and eight in total who were in McKeen’s rankings gives the Leafs the top grade in this draft. This should one day be looked back on as the pivotal weekend in Toronto’s rebuilding process.

The grade is largely meaningless as well, thanks to Auston Matthews' value overshadowing anything that happened after.

Like all Draft-day scouting reports, it is a bit too effusive, but take a look at the draft list table that compares the pick slot vs McKeen's projected ranking. We were definitely working off a non-traditional book.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 04, 2016, 04:24:48 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/07/04/toronto-maple-leaf-fans-got-bloo-bloo-blue/

and here's a good look at that non-traditional book.

Quote
Unsurprising Surprise #3: Oh my God, the Bloo Bloo I heard this summer around the Leafs taking these over-age kids.

Now, it wasn’t like people had a great deal of analytical or empirical evidence to back up their preference for picking 18 year olds, as it turns out.

In fact, we laid out a few times that European kids and European leagues aren’t wired to produce “peak product” at that age. Which means that you’re likely to find some Euopean gems turning up after age 18.

Now, guess who else understood that, and before us?

Right. Leaf super-scout Thommie Bergman.

Which is how he managed to gather such an extraordinary list of talent for the Leafs as over-agers, such as: Nik Kulemin, Leo Komarov, Anton Stralman, Carl Gunnarsson and Viktor Stalberg, and more recently Rinat Valiev and Viktor Loov. Plus Nikita Soshnikov and Nikita Zaitsev, of course, who were never drafted at all. And before that, the older names, such as Danny Markov, Fredrik Modin, Sergey Berezin, Nikolai Borschevsky and Boris Mironov.

Oh wait, guess who else understood that European talent often doesn’t show itself until after the age of 18?

I’ll bet you can guess. Let’s play, “What do the following names have in common?”

  • Nik Lidstrom
  • Sergei Fedorov
  • Vladimir Konstantinov
  • Pavel Datsyuk
  • Tomas Holmstrom
  • Johan Franzen
  • Nik Kronwall
  • Gustav Nyquist
  • Alexey Marchenko [Detroit rookie defenceman]
  • Mattias Janmark [15 goals as a rookie for Dallas this year]
That’s right, folks. The majority of Detroit’s amazing European talent haul has come from over-age picks. Year over year, they quietly pick the talent from Europe’s overagers.

Only now Shanny and the Leafs have joined in.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on July 04, 2016, 05:22:19 PM
I think outside of Matthews we may see 3 others on the Leafs one day and that is not a bad draft at all.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on July 05, 2016, 09:44:42 AM
I hope you're right, but I think that might be a tad optimistic. It's happened before, of course, but I don't have high hopes. Which is fine, because it'd be ok if Matthews alone makes it.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 05, 2016, 09:54:23 AM
Leaf drafts and their picks that made it!
2000: Brad Boyes; Mikael Tellqvist
2001: Carlo Colaiacovo; Jay Harrison; Kyle Wellwood
2002: Alex Steen; Matt Stajan; Ian White
2003: John Mitchell
2004:
2005: Tuuka Rask; Anton Stralman
2006: Jiri Tlusty; Nikolai Kulemin; James Reimer; Viktor Stalberg; Leo Komarov
2007: Matt Frattin (sort of); Carl Gunnarsson
2008: Luke Schenn (sort of); Jimmy Hayes
2009: Nazem Kadri
2010:
2011:
2012: Morgan Rielly
2013: TBD
2014: TBD
2015: TBD
2016: TBD

If history is an indicator, at least one would be very, very nice.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2016, 10:09:13 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/07/04/toronto-maple-leaf-fans-got-bloo-bloo-blue/

and here's a good look at that non-traditional book.

In fact, we laid out a few times that European kids and European leagues aren’t wired to produce “peak product” at that age. Which means that you’re likely to find some Euopean gems turning up after age 18.

This is not what "likely" means.

 

  • Nik Lidstrom
  • Sergei Fedorov
  • Vladimir Konstantinov
  • Pavel Datsyuk
  • Tomas Holmstrom
  • Johan Franzen
  • Nik Kronwall
  • Gustav Nyquist
  • Alexey Marchenko [Detroit rookie defenceman]
  • Mattias Janmark [15 goals as a rookie for Dallas this year]
That’s right, folks. The majority of Detroit’s amazing European talent haul has come from over-age picks. Year over year, they quietly pick the talent from Europe’s overagers.

Now, admittedly, I'm not exactly a technological or geopolitical expert but if you work off of the assumption that certain things have changed in Europe over the last 25 years or so(I don't know if that's true, things seem a little bumpy over the last week though) you might also be inclined to note that the only real impact players on that list are the guys drafted a long time ago, by a very different Red Wings staff. Other than that it's mostly ok players who we probably think of as being better than they are because they were on Detroit. Which seems like a fine aim for a pick if you're picking in the 4th round or lower.

Over the years though I'd be pretty comfortable putting up 18 year olds taken in the 2nd round vs. overagers.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 05, 2016, 10:23:11 AM
Now, admittedly, I'm not exactly a technological or geopolitical expert but if you work off of the assumption that certain things have changed in Europe over the last 25 years or so(I don't know if that's true, things seem a little bumpy over the last week though) you might also be inclined to note that the only real impact players on that list are the guys drafted a long time ago, by a very different Red Wings staff. Other than that it's mostly ok players who we probably think of as being better than they are because they were on Detroit. Which seems like a fine aim for a pick if you're picking in the 4th round or lower.

Over the years though I'd be pretty comfortable putting up 18 year olds taken in the 2nd round vs. overagers.

I think I'm in a similar boat.

I liked some of his observations (e.g. European leagues designed to peak after 18; possession-heavy game style;). The overage European market is no longer a one-team field, so the pickings are going to be naturally slimmer now, than when the Red Wings made hay.

In any case, I like that our team is targeting players with upside that they believe have fixable flaws (like home buying) and dipping into pools that are often ignored due to lack of information (hence our lack of conclusive information on these players). Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 05, 2016, 10:28:10 AM
So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2016, 10:35:15 AM
Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2016, 10:39:51 AM
So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.

That'll definitely be an interesting list of players to check up on in 3 years.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 05, 2016, 10:41:57 AM
Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority)

I'm aware. Not saying he's right or wrong, just observing his pattern.

He leans on the CHL list a bit further down the draft though, where such familiarity is more of an advantage.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Potvin29 on July 05, 2016, 10:45:32 AM
Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority)

Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2016, 10:54:04 AM
So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.

That'll definitely be an interesting list of players to check up on in 3 years.

Although it's probably worth mentioning in that regard that I think a lot of the people advocating for those picks did so on the basis of them being high upside picks as opposed to safer ones.

Until I see any sort of concrete evidence that any method, or even any person, has really nailed the evaluation of draft eligible players "we're shooting blind, we might as well shoot high" doesn't seem like much of a statement to hold someone to.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2016, 10:58:05 AM
Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.

It's only through repeating the words that we find our inner peace and it becomes mantra.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 06, 2016, 09:13:08 AM
The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

I'm thoroughly excited about a good number of our forward prospects.  I'm less thrilled at our defense and goaltending future.  (Come to think of it, that's usually a mark of the Hunter drafts in the OHL too!)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on July 06, 2016, 09:14:14 AM
Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.

It's only through repeating the words that we find our inner peace and it becomes mantra.

I'll admit I have no idea how that addresses his fair observation.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on July 06, 2016, 09:40:06 AM
The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

I'm thoroughly excited about a good number of our forward prospects.  I'm less thrilled at our defense and goaltending future.  (Come to think of it, that's usually a mark of the Hunter drafts in the OHL too!)

I think that's a fair assessment. But nonetheless, it's a cause for optimism for me.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 06, 2016, 10:24:21 AM
Until I see any sort of concrete evidence that any method, or even any person, has really nailed the evaluation of draft eligible players "we're shooting blind, we might as well shoot high" doesn't seem like much of a statement to hold someone to.

This is fair. My observation re: those pet picks has more to do with our perception and defied expectations than any judgment on Hunter's work.

The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

Haha, the high hurdle of "not being an idiot".
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 11, 2016, 12:19:26 PM
Vladmir Bobylev (5th rder) has signed for 2 years with KHL's HC Spartak Moscow, per PPP/Scott Wheeler | link (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2016/7/11/12149100/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-vladimir-bobylev-signs-with-khls-hc).

Along with Korshkov (KHL), Grundstrom (SHL), Woll (NCAA), Greenway (NCAA), and Chebykin (KHL?), I think we've got some extra runway with 6 of the 2016 picks in terms of committing SPC slots.

Does anyone know the CBA stuff about when we need to lock down players drafted out of Euro/signed with Euro leagues?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 12, 2016, 09:20:49 AM
Yegor Korshkov at the World Juniors, where recency bias reigns supreme, courtesy of /r/leafs (https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs).
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRErOrnowiU[/youtube]

It's just one play, but I can definitely see why we picked him up that high (he wouldn't have made it to our next pick). His shot fake and spin is on Zach Werenski.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 12, 2016, 09:29:52 AM

He sure looks like a man among boys.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on July 12, 2016, 10:17:44 AM
great move on that play
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 14, 2016, 09:33:41 PM
http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/24/why-player-age-may-shape-the-maple-leafs-approach-to-the-2015-nhl-draft

An old post that references older work by members of the analytics department prior to their hires highlighting potential market inefficiencies in the younger end of the draft age spectrum.

This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: bustaheims on July 14, 2016, 09:45:05 PM
This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: TBLeafer on July 15, 2016, 08:53:02 AM
Had me excited there for a sec.  I thought for a moment that you went back and found an analysis piece put together by Cam Charron.  ;)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 15, 2016, 09:23:37 AM
This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.

Hah, I didn't click those links as there was no overt reference to over-agers in the link text.
http://canucksarmy.com/2012/6/15/nhl-draft-mike-gillis-and-player-age

Quote
What Rob's data shows is extremely interesting for our purposes. First off, his findings indicate that older 18 year olds are overvalued at the draft. Whenever a definable group appears to be overvalued, that means that there's probably a market inefficiency that an aware General Manager can exploit, in this case by drafting the youngest group of players on the board in later rounds.

[...]

Statistically speaking, Mike Gillis' habit of drafting older players in later rounds puts the Canucks at a slight disadvantage. Again according to Rob's data, as a group, the youngest players drafted in later rounds outperform their draft slot by the most, and individually, produce the highest rate of over-performers. The oldest players (20+) rarely outperform their draft slot, though, they do produce individual over-performers at a comparable rate as the youngest group - and at a higher rate than any of the middle groupings.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 09:32:18 AM

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 15, 2016, 09:45:22 AM

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

The market inefficiency stuff really only comes into effect in the absence of clearer performance history, right?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 09:46:35 AM

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

Pffft. No wonder he's not going to get those bonuses.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on July 15, 2016, 10:13:52 AM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on July 15, 2016, 11:46:15 AM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: TBLeafer on July 15, 2016, 12:32:34 PM
Didn't Crosby sign his in September?

Stamkos at the end of July?

I don't think its bonus related.  As Shanny said, they didn't get stupid overnight.

There could be some offers they're sifting through for his rights, for all we know.

I imagine that when they have determined that keeping him is ultimately, without a hint of a doubt, the best option for their future, they will offer him his appropriate contract, bonuses and all.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 12:35:19 PM

Seriously, you guys might not want to trip over yourselves in a rush to defend everything the team does and figure out what a joke is.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: TBLeafer on July 15, 2016, 12:42:24 PM

Seriously, you guys might not want to trip over yourselves in a rush to defend everything the team does and figure out what a joke is.

I got the joke.  :)

Just trying to put people's minds at ease.  ;)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 15, 2016, 12:44:37 PM
I don't think its bonus related.  As Shanny said, they didn't get stupid overnight.

There could be some offers they're sifting through for his rights, for all we know.

I imagine that when they have determined that keeping him is ultimately, without a hint of a doubt, the best option for their future, they will offer him his appropriate contract, bonuses and all.

I'd be more worried if this WASN'T bonus related and instead because of the reasons you suggested.

Note: I'm not actually worried.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 12:46:30 PM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?

Matthews being the only guy in the Top 4 not to sign is a big worry.  I have lost several patches of hair and I wake up feeling nauseated in the morning.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: bustaheims on July 15, 2016, 12:54:15 PM
Seriously, you guys might not want to trip over yourselves in a rush to defend everything the team does and figure out what a joke is.

(https://frinkiac.com/meme/S09E15/270786.jpg?b64lines=T0gsIEkgR0VUIElULiAKSSBHRVQgSk9LRVMuIA==)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on July 15, 2016, 12:55:11 PM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?

Matthews being the only guy in the Top 4 not to sign is a big worry.  I have lost several patches of hair and I wake up feeling nauseated in the morning.

Are you sure you're not pregnant?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: bustaheims on July 15, 2016, 12:59:56 PM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?

Matthews being the only guy in the Top 4 not to sign is a big worry.  I have lost several patches of hair and I wake up feeling nauseated in the morning.

Are you sure you're not pregnant?

He's a doctor. You'd think he'd know.

You'd think.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 01:02:32 PM
I'd be more worried if this WASN'T bonus related and instead because of the reasons you suggested.

Note: I'm not actually worried.

Also, that still doesn't make sense. It's not like you can't trade him if he's signed.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 01:06:32 PM
Edmonton just signed Puljujarvi, so not worried about the Matthews thing at all. It will be worked out.

Is anyone actually worried?

Matthews being the only guy in the Top 4 not to sign is a big worry.  I have lost several patches of hair and I wake up feeling nauseated in the morning.

Are you sure you're not pregnant?

He's a doctor. You'd think he'd know.

You'd think.

Hi everybody!  You've tried the best, now try the rest.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 01:10:29 PM
I'd be more worried if this WASN'T bonus related and instead because of the reasons you suggested.

Note: I'm not actually worried.

Also, that still doesn't make sense. It's not like you can't trade him if he's signed.

It certainly would concern me in the sense of stupid rules like facial hair (you can take my goatee from my cold head face) and that Lou brings some things that seem a lot less progressive to a group that really got me excited about being at the top if not ahead of the curve.  If we are going to penny pinch about bonuses that the majority of top prospects still don't hit, it just seems like petty nonsense.  I'm not worried that we won't sign him, more mild annoyance that something simple could potentially be held up because of silly Lou logic.

There is also that entire side of things where maybe they just sat down to sign the deal because Matthews isn't in a rush to do it, the Leafs are fussed about taking their time and it's something that is inevitable so who really cares.  Maybe they want to make dumb people freak out a bit.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 01:20:04 PM
It certainly would concern me in the sense of stupid rules like facial hair (you can take my goatee from my cold head face) and that Lou brings some things that seem a lot less progressive to a group that really got me excited about being at the top if not ahead of the curve.  If we are going to penny pinch about bonuses that the majority of top prospects still don't hit, it just seems like petty nonsense.  I'm not worried that we won't sign him, more mild annoyance that something simple could potentially be held up because of silly Lou logic.

There is also that entire side of things where maybe they just sat down to sign the deal because Matthews isn't in a rush to do it, the Leafs are fussed about taking their time and it's something that is inevitable so who really cares.  Maybe they want to make dumb people freak out a bit.

Yeah, I'm not really concerned about the Matthews thing. I do however love taking shots at Lamoriello and am mildly concerned that a team that used to say and do things that made me think they were really smart just about daily has gone a long time without that and it's not at all hard to pinpoint when it changed.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 15, 2016, 01:22:40 PM
Yeah, I'm not really concerned about the Matthews thing. I do however love taking shots at Lamoriello and am mildly concerned that a team that used to say and do things that made me think they were really smart just about daily has gone a long time without that and it's not at all hard to pinpoint when it changed.

When they stopped letting Dubas talk :( #GMDubasAugust2016
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 01:23:15 PM
It certainly would concern me in the sense of stupid rules like facial hair (you can take my goatee from my cold head face) and that Lou brings some things that seem a lot less progressive to a group that really got me excited about being at the top if not ahead of the curve.  If we are going to penny pinch about bonuses that the majority of top prospects still don't hit, it just seems like petty nonsense.  I'm not worried that we won't sign him, more mild annoyance that something simple could potentially be held up because of silly Lou logic.

There is also that entire side of things where maybe they just sat down to sign the deal because Matthews isn't in a rush to do it, the Leafs are fussed about taking their time and it's something that is inevitable so who really cares.  Maybe they want to make dumb people freak out a bit.

Yeah, I'm not really concerned about the Matthews thing. I do however love taking shots at Lamoriello and am mildly concerned that a team that used to say and do things that made me think they were really smart just about daily has gone a long time without that and it's not at all hard to pinpoint when it changed.

Honestly, while I do like some of the experience that Lou can bring to the table, losing out on the Dubas lecture series is probably the worst thing that has happened in Leaf-dom in the last year.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Potvin29 on July 15, 2016, 01:26:54 PM
There's been a lot of good, smart moves made since Lou became GM.  The vast majority I'd say.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 01:27:39 PM
There's been a lot of good, smart moves made since Lou became GM.  The vast majority I'd say.

You are only saying that because you went to Lou's pool party and drank that red kool-aid.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 01:35:35 PM
There's been a lot of good, smart moves made since Lou became GM.  The vast majority I'd say.

To me there's a gap between a hockey move striking me as being on-balance good and a team doing something that really makes me think they're smart.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: lamajama on July 15, 2016, 01:38:57 PM
There's been a lot of good, smart moves made since Lou became GM.  The vast majority I'd say.

You are only saying that because you went to Lou's pool party and drank that red kool-aid.

As I said elsewhere here, they aren't signing Jimmy Vesey without max performance bonuses so
if Lou is being Lou for Matthews, goodbye Jimmy.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Bullfrog on July 15, 2016, 02:25:33 PM
I can't imagine that's true. I doubt Vesey expects to hit all the max bonuses.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: bustaheims on July 15, 2016, 02:29:25 PM
I can't imagine that's true. I doubt Vesey expects to hit all the max bonuses.

I'd say it's less about expectations and more about what other teams will be offering him. Unless he's dead-set on being a Leaf, the team's offer will have to the same value as what teams like the Bruins, Sabres, and Co. will be offering.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 15, 2016, 02:29:34 PM
Vesey isn't that big a deal.

He also clearly doesn't care as much about the money as he does where he plays and who he plays for; otherwise he would've taken the extra burned ELC year with Nashville.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on July 15, 2016, 02:33:57 PM
Vesey isn't that big a deal.

He also clearly doesn't care as much about the money as he does where he plays and who he plays for; otherwise he would've taken the extra burned ELC year with Nashville.

I think the ELC burn year is a consideration for sure, also the location. I still think he's heading to Boston but that's purely speculation.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 02:34:38 PM
Vesey isn't that big a deal.

He also clearly doesn't care as much about the money as he does where he plays and who he plays for; otherwise he would've taken the extra burned ELC year with Nashville.

Unless he just didn't want to play for Nashville.

If the Leafs are going to be competitive for talent they can't expect everyone to come here because they're in love with tradition.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 15, 2016, 02:41:06 PM
Unless he just didn't want to play for Nashville.

If the Leafs are going to be competitive for talent they can't expect everyone to come here because they're in love with tradition.

Judging by the fit Poile threw, I wouldn't be surprised.

I don't expect Vesey to come here, nor would I build any rosters around his name until he says otherwise.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 15, 2016, 02:43:42 PM
I can't imagine that's true. I doubt Vesey expects to hit all the max bonuses.

Justin Schultz and Kevin Hayes both received max bonuses when they were in the same spot Vesey is. Defenceman Mike Reilly got a little less than half last year but I don't think he was as chased after. It's very likely that he gets the max or at least close to it.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 02:44:14 PM
Judging by the fit Poile threw, I wouldn't be surprised.

I don't expect Vesey to come here, nor would I build any rosters around his name until he says otherwise.

Like you, I'm not all that fussed about Vesey. I was more speaking generally.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on July 15, 2016, 06:47:04 PM
Good humour in the slow times and good ribbing is great. I don't take anyhthing seriously except my family and my job, the rest is pretty much fodder for fun and Whal_____m
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: L K on July 15, 2016, 06:57:15 PM
I'm just wondering, but is burning the ELC actually more money for these guys?  I mean if he comes in and lights the world on fire sure, it does, but if he has a rough year this year (on a 1-year deal)  he could potentially make only 1.0-1.5M next year guaranteed.  While that might be more money, a max bonus prospect can make like 3.5M.

Is Casey Bailey thrilled with the 2-way contract he signed with Ottawa this year that pays him 40K less than he made on his 2-year entry level deal with the Leafs?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 15, 2016, 07:00:48 PM
I'm just wondering, but is burning the ELC actually more money for these guys?  I mean if he comes in and lights the world on fire sure, it does, but if he has a rough year this year (on a 1-year deal)  he could potentially make only 1.0-1.5M next year guaranteed.  While that might be more money, a max bonus prospect can make like 3.5M.

Is Casey Bailey thrilled with the 2-way contract he signed with Ottawa this year that pays him 40K less than he made on his 2-year entry level deal with the Leafs?

These guys tend to be pretty confident so I'd guess most of them don't really weight the downsides like that.

That said, I've talked about it potentially being beneficial to burn ELC deals a little quicker so I think it very well might be the case.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: lamajama on July 15, 2016, 07:27:03 PM
I can't imagine that's true. I doubt Vesey expects to hit all the max bonuses.

I'd say it's less about expectations and more about what other teams will be offering him. Unless he's dead-set on being a Leaf, the team's offer will have to the same value as what teams like the Bruins, Sabres, and Co. will be offering.

Exactly. As long as he's offered those max potential with the Leafs, the dollars will be all even so then it comes down to preference on where he wants to play, opportunities etc.

BUT - as I said it appears Lou won't play ball. Ironic that the Leafs are haggling over money especially when they
can manage cap-wise to accommodate this.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on July 15, 2016, 07:35:04 PM
Did Bailey have any bonus structure in his contract?
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on July 15, 2016, 07:37:51 PM
Unless he just didn't want to play for Nashville.

If the Leafs are going to be competitive for talent they can't expect everyone to come here because they're in love with tradition.

Judging by the fit Poile threw, I wouldn't be surprised.

I don't expect Vesey to come here, nor would I build any rosters around his name until he says otherwise.

Not only that but like you said, Vesey is not that big a deal overall. Would I be ok with him being signed, yes, do I care if he doesn't, not really.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on July 20, 2016, 09:30:12 AM
Did Bailey have any bonus structure in his contract?

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/casey-bailey
Looks like he got a small something in his first year.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 05, 2016, 07:39:55 AM
@RUSProspects
#MapleLeafs prospect Yegor Korshkov scored two goals for Russia NT B-team in the 3-2 win over HC Sochi.

Not bad kid.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on August 05, 2016, 08:58:59 AM
Grundstrom also had a good showing against the US team.
He left the following game due to what appeared to be an injury.

JD Greenway was cut from the US camp. Woll, along with Bracco, made it to the final evaluation games.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on August 05, 2016, 01:24:42 PM
Not that this is the be all end all but Korshkov showed well in this fight versus Lepisto...

[youtube]YUdXyTEi9_g[/youtube]
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 05, 2016, 01:28:08 PM
If anyone wants to watch some afternoon August hockey, Canada is playing Sweden right now on TSN in a World Junior Summer Showcase game. Marner's playing on a line with Strome and Tyson Jost.

You can find a link to a youtube stream here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLStreams/comments/4wawvf/game_thread_1300_est_sweden_u20_vs_canada_u20/
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on August 05, 2016, 01:32:05 PM
4-1 SWE on 10 shots
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Tigger on August 05, 2016, 01:33:43 PM
Thanks Carlton!
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 05, 2016, 03:19:45 PM
Thanks for nothing Carlton, tuned in at 4-1. :(

;)
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on August 05, 2016, 05:43:11 PM
We didnt look to good.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on August 05, 2016, 06:43:24 PM
We didnt look too good.

Marner did. His linemates not so much.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Highlander on August 06, 2016, 10:10:40 AM
Is Matthews playing on the US squad, I hardly noticed him, will try to watch some of the Canada/US game today. Starts at 4PM I think.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on August 31, 2016, 04:53:36 PM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2016/8/31/12733564/watch-yegor-korshkov-with-an-ot-goal-he-made-happen-all-on-his-own

After crushing the MHL and getting the bump to the KHL this year, Yegor Korshkov is now playing 3rd/4th line minutes in the KHL. Most Kontinental teams go heavy on their top lines and rookies barely get a sniff, but for some reason the Lokomotiv coach put Korshkov out for an OT shift that immediately paid dividends.
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: Crucialness Key on September 01, 2016, 08:41:44 AM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2016/8/31/12733564/watch-yegor-korshkov-with-an-ot-goal-he-made-happen-all-on-his-own

After crushing the MHL and getting the bump to the KHL this year, Yegor Korshkov is now playing 3rd/4th line minutes in the KHL. Most Kontinental teams go heavy on their top lines and rookies barely get a sniff, but for some reason the Lokomotiv coach put Korshkov out for an OT shift that immediately paid dividends.

"some reason" = the Long Arm of Lou
Title: Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
Post by: herman on September 01, 2016, 09:31:47 AM
"some reason" = the Long Arm of Lou

(http://copshq.generalsjoes.com/images/cartoon/characters/longarm-1.jpg)

You rang?